A Tool of Sports Analysis: Statistics
Sports are something that brings people together and allows people to bond over something they are both passionate about. People watch live games at stadiums with thousands of seats, while millions of people watch the event on television in the comfort of their own homes. For example, the World Cup in 2018 had 3.57 billion viewers (Dempsey, 2021); close to 50% of the world population, showing just how big of a role sports play in our world. While sports may be important overall, one aspect of them that is often overlooked is the use of statistics in sports. Statistics can be used in so many different ways in sports by all the different groups involved: players, coaches, media, and fans. These groups all use statistics in different ways. The main ways they are used are to improve a team’s odds of winning, to give out player awards, to improve play through coaching, to commentate, and to participate in sports betting.
The most obvious use of statistics is probability and finding a player or team’s chances of winning. Once these statistics are reviewed changes can be made to a team or a player’s plan in order to increase their chances of winning. A very popular example of this is the penalty kick in soccer. A shot is kicked from 12 yards away in which the team’s best goalkeeper must dive before the ball is kicked. The goalkeeper is being forced to guess where the player is shooting. There are several studies which have been done in order to figure out how to increase a players odds of scoring and a goalkeepers odds of saving a kick. One such study, conducted by Mike Hughes and Julia Wells, reviewed the power and placement of a shot in order to determine the correct combination to have the highest chance of scoring. In the study it was found that a player has the highest chance of scoring if they shoot the ball with 75% power. Shooting with 75% a player scored 81% of the time vs 47% and 63% when shooting with 50% and 100% power respectively (Hughes & Wells, 2002). If a player were to review this study, they would find that shooting with 75% power increased other players’ chances of scoring and would likely do the same.
However the study also looked at the players run up and how this affected their shot. They showed that a player who ran at a medium speed relative to other players had the highest chance of scoring a goal. Another study looked at goalkeepers tendencies and where they are more likely to dive. They split the goal into 3 parts and found they were much more likely to go to the right or left than stay in the middle (Pastuovic, 2020).
Players can use these numbers to find that if they were to shoot down the middle more the goalkeeper would likely not be in the right place to save the shot. Not only can statistics be used to help individual players but they can also be used to help a team as a whole. Again, using the example of penalty shootouts, it is shown that teams who shoot first in world cup shootouts win 60% of the time vs teams that shoot second who only win 40% of the time (Fernandez & Pettit, 2018). This 20% difference is massive and the team that wins the coin toss can use this to their advantage in order to win the game. Not only can statistics be used to increase the odds of winning but they can also be used at the end of a season or a game in order to give out awards.
Awards play a large role in sports since they honor the players and therefore lead to them signing bigger contracts. For example, in the NBA if a player who is “entering their seventh, eighth, or ninth seasons to sign new contracts or extensions worth 35% of the salary cap, with 8% annual raises each season. To be eligible, they have to have recently won MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or made an All-NBA team” (Davis, 2020). Awards given out at the end of the season allow for players to make significantly more money than their colleagues. Deciding the awards can be a tough challenge as there are many things that can be viewed in order to determine if a player should win an award. While many analysts claim that the NBA MVP award should go to the best player on the best team they have to determine both what the best team is and who their best player is. Some other analysts claim that the NBA MVP should be a player who puts up “historical number” (Li, 2019). While historical numbers are obviously a use of statistics and data, so is finding the best player. Finding the best team forces analysts to look at records — specifically statistics — of teams and then compare these players to see which one had the biggest impact. Often to find the best player, analysts can look at general statistics like points, rebounds, and assists but these don’t always tell the full story. For example, right now on the Utah Jazz there are two players playing very different roles and have good numbers in different statistics. Rudy Gobert averages 14 rebounds a game and 3.5 blocks while Donovan Mitchell averages 25 points (2020–21 Postseason Utah Jazz Stats).
While Gobert may not have as many assists or points he can still be considered the best player due to his defensive prowess and rebounding ability. In order to figure out which player has a larger impact advanced statistics can be used. These are things such as field goal percentage and plus minus along with reviewing the teams performance with each player on and off the floor. Again, while it might not appear statistics are being used they always play some sort of role. Besides using this data to give out awards, statistics can also allow for players and coaches to prepare for upcoming opponents.
When preparing for games teams will scout opponents and find out their tendencies in order to develop plays and win the game. In soccer, for example, teams will scout opposing players and their typical moves, such as which way they like to turn when they receive the ball. When a team knows this they can find a way to defend it, slowing down and even stopping the attack of their opponent. Not only can statistics be used to find individual player tendencies but also team tendencies. In soccer, teams can see if their opponent likes to have the ball or if they typically try to defend and play on the counter attack. They can also see how their goals are scored and from this make a defensive strategy. In addition, this can be used on the offensive end to take advantage of a team’s defensive weaknesses. One example of this can be seen in football; teams can review how their opponent likes to defend against certain plays. For instance, a famous play the Chiefs used in the super bowl called “wasp” demonstrates the use of a counter play. The play was made because San Francisco liked to run a zone defense. The Chiefs looked at how often the outside defender bit in on a route run and saw that it was actually a very high percentage. From this they used a play that would cause their best receiver to be one on one against a defender that was slower than him. This allowed them to move the ball over 50 yards down the field. In an article written by Chris Booth about scouting other teams he states “chart all the opponents plays” (Booth, 2016). He then goes on to explain how after you chart the game you can look back and find tendencies. For example you can see if a team likes to blitz on certain plays and from this you can use probabilities and statistics to make an educated guess on your opponent’s next move. While teams may use statistics to scout their opponents, commentators and analysts use them to analyze teams and players.
Commentators are a large part of many sports as they help fans watching on TV understand what is happening, along with providing analysis of players and teams. They can use statistics in their commentary in order to analyze the strategies and moves used by players. Commentators can use statistics in order to build anticipation during breaks in the game to keep a viewers excitement up. They can do this by talking about scenarios that have happened before and use statistics to build anticipation towards what could happen in that situation. For example on a corner kick in soccer before the kick is taken a commentator can talk about how often a team scores or concedes on corners. This builds anticipation for the kick and allows for a fan’s excitement to stay high. Commentators can also use statistics in pregame shows to make predictions or analyze how teams are likely to play. In order to do this they look at a team’s statistics from the season or previous season along with their statistics in a head to head matchup. This use of statistics allows them to make predictions and talk during a pregame show. Not only do commentators use statistics to analyze teams but so do sports analysts. Shows on ESPN like Sports Center and The Jump, along with others like Inside the NBA use statistics to analyze games and the season as a whole. They look at points and field goal percentage after an NBA game in order to analyze it. Without statistics the analysts would only be looking at certain plays and not the game as a whole. Numbers allow us to compare game to game. Not only do analysts use these statistics but so can sports bettors in order to determine odds and make bets.
Sports betting is a major part of sports as it brings in a lot of money but also gives fans more to care about. Sports betting can be on spreads, prop bets, or fantasy games. These draw interest for fans as they have more of a stake in the game and it makes them want to watch games they might not have watched before. Odds used to be decided in Las Vegas with “oddsmakers gathered in a room for several hours to compare stats, notes and numbers to determine and set daily betting lines” (Fussman, 2020). Stats have been used in Vegas to determine odds as teams are compared using stats but it has changed from people to programs that are able to determine odds. Odds are now created and “compiled by computers, utilizing all available statistics and data” (Fussman, 2020). While it has shifted from people to computers, statistics still play a vital role in sports betting. They are just plugged into programs that can make odds from all relevant statistics of a team. In addition to odds being created, many fantasy games are played using statistics. Fantasy football is a very big part of the NFL as many people play. They pick players to make a team and battle head to head against their friends with these newly formed teams. Players can earn points in their league by players scoring points or gaining yards by running or catching. These statistics are the entirety of the game of fantasy. Without statistics fantasy wouldn’t exist and a major part of drawing in fans interest would be gone.
Statistics are an essential part of sports and without them there wouldn’t be as much media about sports. Statistics are necessary for analysts and commentators to do their job. They need them to build anticipation and compare teams along with filling time on their programs. Without statistics they would struggle to talk for the entirety of a game and analysts would struggle to compare teams using reasoning. Not only does the media rely on statistics but so do the teams and players. They can gain serious advantages from studying other teams and past performances using statistics. They can analyze player tendencies along with figuring out how teams tend to beat their opponents. They can also see how teams have lost and find their weaknesses and use them to their advantage. Lastly, sports betting relies heavily on statistics. It is used to determine odds and allow for people to place bets. Statistics are also used to make games for betters such as fantasy football. The sports world without statistics would be vastly different. Teams would know much less about their opponents going into games and they would have to adapt more during the game. In addition, sports betting would likely be less existent and fantasy sports would not exist at all. The sports world relies heavily on statistics in order to function and make money. The economy of sports would be much smaller if statistics were not used and the sports world most likely would be a lot smaller.
Works Cited
Booth, C. (2016, April 16). Step by step instructions on how to scout your opponent. USA Football. https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/2074/step-by-step-instructions-on-how-to-scout-your-opponent.
Davis, S. (2020, December 22). NBA supermax contracts pay stars at least $200 million to stay with their teams — but they’re backfiring as often as they work out. Insider. https://www.insider.com/have-nba-supermax-contracts-giannis-worked-2020-12#:~:text=The%20supermax%20allows%20players%20entering,made%20an%20All%2DNBA%20team.
Dempsey, S. (2021, April 13). Most Watched Sporting Events of All Time. Stadium Talk. https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/most-popular-sporting-events-world-8fc518d95d104c16.
ESPN Internet Ventures. (n.d.). 2020–21 Postseason Utah Jazz Stats. ESPN. https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/utah.
Fernandez, C., & Pettit, H. (2018, July 2). Secret to winning a World Cup penalty shootout: Going first gives you 20% greater chance of victory. Daily Mail Online. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5909537/Secret-winning-World-Cup-penalty-shootout-Going-gives-20-greater-chance-victory.html.
Fussman, C. (2020, October 27). How is the Point Spread Calculated? Bookies.com. https://bookies.com/guides/how-is-point-spread-calculated.
Hughes, M., & Wells, J. (2002, August). Analysis of penalties taken in shoot-outs. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233560563_Analysis_of_penalties_taken_in_shoot-outs.
Li, P. (2019, April 20). NBA MVP Prediction Model. Medium. https://towardsdatascience.com/nba-mvp-predictor-c700e50e0917.
Pastuovic, M. (2020, December 4). The Numbers behind Penalty Shootouts in World Cup. Northwestern Sports Analytics Group. https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2020/12/04/the-numbers-behind-penalty-shootout-in-world-cup/.